Overall, the data reinforces a resilient growth environment with pockets of moderation, where strong manufacturing and firm labor conditions offset softer (but still expanding) services activity. Combined with tighter energy markets and a cautious Fed, this keeps inflation risks tilted to the upside, likely sustaining elevated rate expectations, upward pressure on yields, and a selective equity backdrop.
Last week was centered on inflation and consumer demand, with housing and labor data helping round out the broader economic picture.
It was a short and relatively light week for economic data, but the releases still provided a useful snapshot of the economy.
The U.S./Israel conflict with Iran has continued to cause significant volatility within markets, and given this, we felt it was important to provide an additional update.
Last week delivered a concentrated set of U.S. economic data that helped refine expectations around growth, inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s policy path.